Geopolitics

Policy research in the Geopolitics pillar is crucial for understanding the rapidly shifting power dynamics driven by China’s evolving domestic politics and global ambitions. As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces internal leadership challenges, a slowing economy, demographic constraints, and mounting governance crises, its approach to both Indo-Pacific security and worldwide influence is changing. Strategic insight into China’s current posture, its “gray zone” coercion in the region, long-term Belt and Road strategies, and potential scenarios in a post-Xi or even post-CCP era will enable policymakers to anticipate inflection points and protect democratic interests.
Current gaps include a lack of in-depth, scenario-based analysis of possible leadership transitions or “post-CCP” evolutions; insufficient integration of ground-level social, economic, and ethnic tensions into broader geopolitical forecasting; and limited open-source transparency regarding elite power struggles and succession planning within the CCP.